2009
There is a God above God? Today November 23
Now this is the twenty-third regional bank failure in 2008. To think that in 2002 the failed banks were twelve. By comparison, from 2000 to 2002 the SP500 index put us 30 months to lower from 1600 to 800 points, now we put twelve months (from October 2007 to October 2008), a descent of the same magnitude, but the number of failed banks has nearly doubled.
The 'rescue' of the Fed and the Treasury continuously fail: Citi had already received 25 billion dollars due to him have another 20, and guarantee on behalf of the state 306 billion of "toxic assets" in the belly of Citi.
Citibank is the third holder of the world's derivatives: it has 30 thousand billion dollars (30 trillion nominally, more than twice the U.S. GDP), its failure would have caused direct losses on derivatives 400 billion, and indirect taxes for 1500. A Citi
lead to failure are the speculators who using credit default swaps, which bet on his failure, and thus self-fulfilling prophecy. The Government should cancel all CDS held or pointed at Citi, perhaps compensating for the players with a small nominal fee. It would cost less, and would give a strong signal: the casino is closed.
But ideology prohibits Bernanke and Paulson also thought of this measure.
Their thought is to save the system, not reform it.
Bloomberg reports: The State undertakes to pay more than 7.4 trillion dollars to rescue the financial system, calculating the 2.8 trillion already swallowed up by financial institutions and commitments that the Fed takes day by day:
"Last week the Fed has given 1900 times the average of the three years preceding the crisis."
Even Bloomberg is indignant: those are half the 7.4 trillion GDP is 9 times what the U.S. has been the case hitherto in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, $ 24,000 made against every man, woman and child in America. Why the Fed pays on behalf of American taxpayers, but how will the tax levy increase?
The worst, in terms of ethical and political, is that of the 7.4 trillion that the Fed is already spending only the $ 700 billion to Paulson wanted to save the first (failed) have the approval of Congress, all pretense of democracy was abruptly shelved, reveals the power in the hands of a plutocratic coup - and incompetent to boot.
'central banks can fail? "Asks the Financial Times (1), with an obvious allusion to what they are doing the Fed's incompetent, but also to the jurisdiction of the European Central Bank.
central banks are buying so many rotten debts from speculators, threatening their solvency. If a central bank no longer has sufficient capital, of which institution can be recapitalized? The lender of last resort has a lender of last resort to fall back on?
The application has a pseudo-religious tone: there is a God above God?
"The Fed has run out of ammunition," headline in the Wall Street Journal Article says its harsh truths, and never before heard from that time of the free paper (2).
The U.S. housing so far has lost $ 4 trillion, the stock market has destroyed 9000 (compare this figure of 13 000 billion dollars, with the Fed's commitment of 7400: This last figure, as mostrtuosa and priceless is only half of the wealth already lost). And 'evident, says the WSJ, which are "in a classic collapse from debt deflation, with prices falling, credit markets frozen and the assets that depreciate" at the speed of light. The bankruptcy
response against this devastation, said the harsh financial newspaper, "belies the conventional wisdom of economists, even central banks: the faith that is not possible to have deflation in a system based on money created out of nothing." Just print money, and prices go up. The fact is, he says (now) the paper is that the Fed can increase the supply of money, but "can not control the velocity of circulation of money."
The Fed has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into banks, but they have no interest other loans (or clients to ask for other loans), and the fiat money rivers that do not "fund existing positions."
And again: "the monetarist Bernanke has always attributed the downturn to the errors of the Japanese Bank of Japan, but now realizes that the monetary gymnastics are not as effective as he wanted to believe."
The Wall Street Journal, arrive at an honorable mention Irving Fisher, the true, great economist forgotten, that in the '30s had proposed the abolition of the fractional credit, the reserve requirement for banks by 100%, because "the excess speculation and excess investment to become very serious if they are made with borrowed money. "
how many years the Wall Street Journal does not Fisher quoted?
Today said "simplistic" absolute monetarism of Milton Friedman, but Friedman was given the Nobel, the whole economy is based on speculation its sacred books, any criticism of the system was rejected by the Wall Street Journal with extensive quotations of Friedman.
Bernanke brought forward rates close to zero, and its next move, which announced in speeches in 2003, will lower the long-term rates, "in practice the Fed will buy Treasury bills in the long term," says the Wall Street Journal.
And here's his conclusion: with this, Benanke will "that the current crisis in the West will end up discrediting the mechanistic monetarism, and with it the system of money ex-nihilo in general, as the standard dollar of paper (without cover), deployed by Nixon when he parted from the gold standard in 1971 and eventually disintegrate.
breakthrough will come in this way: foreign creditors reject the dollar and take refuge in gold.
This eventually will lead to admission, globally, the need for a more regulated financial system, a system in which gold, such a "barbaric relic" despised by the most modern central bankers, will certainly have a part. "
Mai, the newspaper of the bankers and speculators, it was viewed such a revaluation gold, and a similar contempt for the money ex-nihilo. It 's like the Pope, from the balcony fatal confess publicly that the true god is Osiris, and that the true worship and prayer to be made to the Apis bull (the Golden Calf).
Yet, you have to admire the speed with which the most faithful to the Anglo-American dogma are the most ready to overthrow the idols ...
The British government cuts the tax in a decisive manner, from 17.5 to 15%, which will result in an immediate drop in prices and a sudden relief for businesses, that is for the real economy, and as the cut is temporary, the prospect of higher future entice people to buy goods that early hour increased the coverage (whether cars or refrigerators or furniture), and businesses to invest as soon as possible in capital goods (equipment, machine tools, raw materials).
It 's a real and decisive anti-inflation measure: plus beneficial to the poor part of the population, on which indirect taxes weigh proportionally more. And the treasury does not lose it - or lose more than what the fall of the real economy would not lose in lost tax revenue from the crisis, however.
And Italy? Cut the VAT, perhaps 1%. The half-measure, useless, the cacasottto. But they are afraid of not having enough money to pay the salaries of Caste.
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1) William Buiter, 'Can central banks go broke? " Financial Times, November 16, 2008.
2) Christopher Woods, "The Fed is out of ammunitionas, Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2008.
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But while "celebrating" the rescue of Citibank. ... There are things that we are told, for example.:
Iceland. Reuters, November 22 2008 - Thousands of Icelanders - loyal to the authorities - have demonstrated in the streets of Reykjavik demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Geir Haarde and central bank governor David Oddsson, blamed the financial disaster of the country. The events take place for days, with clashes with police. The crowd was elected as head of a well-known Icelandic troubadour-singer, Hordur Torfason, Beppe Grillo a stronger, more capable, Torfason announced that the demonstrations will continue until the government does not go away.
A young man climbed on the building has run Althing (where the president looks for the annual national day) and there has affixed a sign: 'Iceland for sale, 2.1 billion of dollars. "
It 's the amount the country receives as an emergency loan from the IMF. 2-300 Other demonstrators stormed the police station to free up forcibly groped one of the demonstrators, who had been stopped. Smashed windows, police, set in urban warfare, used the gas. At the end of the arrested has been released after payment of a fine. All rates are suddenly increased by 30%, the unemployed are increasing day by day. As you know, the ruin of the country is due to the three main banks, Kaupthing, Glitnir and Landsbankki, which are greatly exposed abroad for higher prices to the GDP of small country. Gudrun Jonsdottir, 36, used: "I'm sick of all this. I do not trust the government, I do not trust the banks, let alone party. And I do not trust the IMF. This was a beautiful country, and they have ruined the " Switzerland. BBCE News, 22 November 2008-Stock in a flash one hundred thousand signatures for a referendum against the bankers: Enough with the golden parachutes of executives, their salaries will be under public control, the bonus in that pocket will be in relation to results. This proposal is directed at Marcel Ospen referendum, the supreme head of UBS, and its directors. The UBS controls 25% of the market, or rather the controlled and now depositors withdrew from the bank the equivalent of EUR 100 billion of deposits (unbelievable, but the figure comes from the BBC), putting them in small local banks (which currently thrive).
The "rescue" of banks, decided by the state with a budget of 60 billion euro, has further angered the Swiss.
China. Due to the reduction in net exports, 62 000 companies have closed in a few weeks. Often without warning - the owners simply disappear with the cash - and leaving workers with months of back pay.
The phenomenon affects so concentrated Guangdong, the center of the Chinese economic miracle, where thousands of fabbrichette produced shoes, toys, gadgets of all general.
For example, a worker named Wang, now unemployed, claiming from his company (Weixu) two months back pay amounting to $ 440. He and his colleagues took to the street, facing the police. Local authorities, under pressure from Beijing, will arrange a payment of arrears in an attempt to calm the protests.
United States. Los Angeles Times, November 23, 2008. A
Bogalusa, a slum of poor whites in Louisiana, once called "the capital of the Ku Klux Klan," the police reported at least 200 incidents of race since being elected Barack Obama.
incidents include the burning crosses in the gardens of mixed marriages, death threats to people (of color or not) that had exhibited at home in front of pro-Obama poster, racist graffiti, appearance of nooses hanging from trees in front of homes of people of color. A woman who was a member of the Klan, but then he was wanted out was riddled by unknown. In Bogalusa, where 40% of the population is black, it is considered that there is at least one "chapter" of the Klan, until yesterday, apparently in his sleep.
Dimitri Orlov, ('The five stages of collapse, "Energy Bulletin, November 11, 2008.) A Russian engineer who lives in the United States, drew up a scale of collapse in five stages, based on his experience, experienced the collapse of Soviet regime and later in the period of inflation and financial scams Yeltsin era.
E 'instructive list scale: 1
-
Financial Collapse 2 - Collapse commercial
3 - 4
political collapse - Collapse social
5 - Collapse cultural
"Each stage involves the loss of faith or trust in some important institution or element of the status quo, "says Orlov. "The measurable physical effects can be slow, but the psychological reversal is very fast."
In Russia in the 90s, the financial collapse was for millions of people, the sudden transition from a first to a post. Before After
Pensions safe Charity
public value of the house homeless, squatting
Investments few kopeks
Save liquid hyperinflation
Transactions on credit transactions in cash, barter
Financial independence interdependence physical
At this stage, it is assumed that the state palace and organize some kind of emergency support; a period of semi-stability before the advent of more states.
Here, Orlov writes, the experience has taught me that it is best to take this step to "fix some important aspects of our lives," especially "In relations with others." The normal financial
says, is like a barrier system, my bank account is separate from your bank account, you and I can live without worrying too much about each other, we believe 'independent economic players in a Level the playing field. "
But when the barriers become irrelevant because there's nothing left behind, "become a burden for one another, in a manner so as to constitute an immediate shock to many. The indignity of this interdependence will have a physical cost in human unexpected, especially in a country brought to the myth of individualism. "
Collapse
commercial
When goods become scarce necessary or shops are not supplied, you immediately notice hoarding, and as a result of looting. Is formed in an instant a large black market for the things of first necessity, from shampoo to vials of insulin. Strong price increases by profiteers. If there is still a state organization, will implement a price control and even rationing, which will be seen as a blessing.
"If before the collapse of the trade problem is having enough money to afford the kinds required, after the problem is to convince those who have the basic necessities to sell them for money, many will want to be paid in something more valid than the liquid gold ...? Or, the customers must provide a service, and since most have little or nothing to offer except their money worthless, if they have not already, suppliers of goods and services shall refrain. Free and open market disappears, replaced by a market that is not open nor free. The goods offered are not yet available to everyone, but only to some and in certain periods. The wealth that still exists is hidden, why show it increases the risk. "
Again, a before and after. Before After
Poor Little money-saving products
services Economics of self-service
Shopping Center Flea markets, flea
Supermarkets stalls of the farmers of New Worship
Repair Products imported objects
Surrogates national
"If before the collapse of the trade problem is having enough money to afford the kinds necessary, after the problem is to convince those who have the basic necessities to sell them for money, many will want to be paid in something more valid than the liquid. Customers must provide a service, and since most have little or nothing to offer apart from their money worthless, if they have not already, suppliers of goods and services shall refrain. Free and open market disappears, replaced by a market that is not open nor free. The goods offered are not yet available to everyone, but only to some and in certain periods. The wealth that still exists is hidden, why show it increases the risk. "
political collapse
Before After
Grandfathering Promises not kept
Municipal Services Tax favoritism
and local budgets Mazzette, extortion
Public policy Military patrols or vigilante
garbage removal rubbish pits
bridges and roads, detours and interruptions
"It may be difficult to become aware of the political collapse because the politicians are good at maintaining the appearance and the claim of authority even when it falters' said Orlov.
A sign left, he saw in Russia, is "the time when regional politicians begin to openly challenge the central government." For example, the governor of the Primorye region, Russian Far East, gaining the local coal mines and established a policy its independent foreign to China, "without that Moscow was able to restrain 'the Chechnya declared independence, leading to bloodshed.
Another sign to look for are "the incursions of foreign powers in domestic affairs." In Russia, "foreign policy advisors have rigged the elections" producing the color revolutions. In Italy, it can say something the mayor of Rome, which stands on the Capitol the flag of Zion being the next ambassador to Israel? In the U.S., sovereign wealth funds to buy bits and pieces of the American economy prelude to a transfer of sovereignty: political demands soon will advance to extract more value from their investment, when begin to fund candidates for public office, you will notice that sovereignty is over elsewhere.
Worse: 'The power vacuum left by the collapsed self tends to be automatically filled by organized crime. " In Italy, this symptom is under our eyes: in Calabria, Sicily and Campania. In Russia, the power of the oligarchs with their private team of assassins, is a most glaring example.
Collapse social
America, though it is proud of her philanthropy, it is very close when it comes to help the needy. The social benefits are punitive, as they are based on ideology is such that the poor because of him. The void is filled by the Social Security private charitable organizations. Greatest need, are the most humiliating conditions imposed on the beneficiaries. " In addition, donors have no motivation to provide more aid in response to growing needs. On the contrary: "When the need is great, constant and increasing charitable organizations become progressively less adequate to meet it."
will therefore be good to look at other options: the return to mutual aid societies (born in the '30s), in which the needy "must not lose their dignity and not be stigmatized for their condition."
If not averted the collapse of social is almost inevitable that the collapse of establishing the culture.
that stage where "you lose faith in the goodness of humanity", where people lose the ability to 'generosity, kindness, respect, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, material aid. "
incipient revolts in culturally obedient countries like Iceland and Switzerland have denounced the collapse of confidence in all institutions, not only banks, but the idea remains, the protesters, "this was a better society"; Swiss express the same shareholders in revolt, when they say that the subprime 'invention American, "thus unworthy of Swiss civilization. Remains in them, therefore, confident that their "culture" is better, and there should only be restated.
You can say the same for Italy? The language
increasingly cynical and violent admitted in public, the fans hooligans, drug addicts repeated offending drivers who mow lives and escape, the graffiti are endemic, the language of Bossi and Di Pietro, the shameful scenes which leave employees Alitalia without shame, all this does not reveal an appalling collapse of the culture, even pre-existing other collapses, financial and political?
Orlov says, "We honesty, for example, people expect it from themselves and from others, or break it finds acceptable to get what he wants? People derive more reason for gratification in showing that he has, or what gives? ". We
Italy and try to answer, especially considering the behavior of the so-called 'caste', whether political, banking, academic, judicial, or public in general. Think of the national politicians that run with an armed escort on blue armored cars, politicians, regional, provincial, local, ...
Violence can not be physical, but already abundant in our western world is mental violence, Orlov notes, "in refuse to recognize the existence of the other. " In
USA is highly visible (but it happens more often from us, to foreigners, immigrants, and not only) the attitude of passers-by who avoid eye contact each other, believing it to be safer. The look "empty" and avoidance of the indifferent gaze of others gives the message: "I do not recognize you," do not exist. This does not make it safer, on the contrary ....
Orlov will not, however, that the conclusion of his analysis leads to pessimism. On the contrary: "I want people to know that he can find a way to lead a peaceful life and significant also in the collapse system, however, condemned. "
The sentence does not involve the illusion that we can do without any public power: Forget 'acquired rights', military operations abroad, the legal value of the qualification, the person who goes to theater for "democracy" and these are the things deciduous politician, but remains the need for essential services, the essential safeguards impersonal.
The revolt must tend to the reconstruction of a 'government' to a minimum - for lack of better - local.
Where communities are socially and culturally strong, people will begin to act to provide the necessary without waiting for official permission. This is less likely to de-industrialized West where 60% of the people of Campania too well 'advanced services' referred to, in fact, you can do without, and lack of skills to meet the basic needs (only 3 -5% is devoted to agriculture).
The cultural collapse - the worst - it's already happened in broad sectors of post-industrial society, by 'ethics' of the billionaires on Wall Street no less than in dangerous neighborhoods of crack dealers. But there are still "pockets of culture intact here and there," communities that have learned to maintain social cohesion by adversity, others took deliberate decision to lead a simpler life and healthy. Orlov should imitate (or import) certain sub-culture life, such as those that exist in certain immigrant communities, or among the Amish and Mennonites, who reject the electric light, traveling by horse and buggy, and cultivate their own bread with their hands. ... hard huh?